July 2020, I came across a short 2-minute video by Ivor Cummings BE(Chem) CEng MIEI PMP who referenced Edgar Hope-Simpson's book on viral seasonality The Transmission of Epidemic Influenza.

Think back to how ancient civilisations worshipped the Sun.

The Seasonal Dynamics of Viruses

Hope-Simpson OBE, FRCGP, Hon FFPHM, started his career-long interest in the transmission of the Influenza Virus at the same time he became a General Practioner during the Great Epidemic of 1932–33. His life-time work culminated in a book 60 years later in 1992, which he questioned the theory of person-to-person transmission being enough to explain the simultaneous appearance of influenza in places far apart. Imagine a Medical Professional daring to ask questions today?

He proposed that the cause of Influenza epidemics during winter may be connected to seasonal influence. Citing the correlation, in part to a lack of vitamin D during wintertime, after documenting influenza epidemics in temperate latitudes peakfn in the months following the winter solstice. His findings were based not only on observation in his practice, but also on extensive historical research into past epidemics.

Rhinoviruses, are the most common cause of the common cold. Although these infections occur year-round, their incidence is highest in the fall and the spring. Coronavirus, in column 2, along with Influenza (column 6) is observed between the winter months from November to March/April.

Seasonal variations in frequency of upper respiratory infections. Source: Medscape
Seasonal variations in frequency of upper respiratory infections. Source: Medscapefn

Europe & USA Year End Review 2020

6 months on, several regional lockdowns later and the nation face muzzled.

A third national lockdown. April mooted as a possible end to this farce.

Florence Nightingale used radial plots to display data to demonstrate death rates amongst soldiers could be reduced by better hygiene practices during the Crimean War.

Time series data by Irene M. Stratton MSc FFPH, Senior Statistician. Gloucestershire Retinal Research Group
Time series data by Irene M. Stratton MSc FFPH, Senior Statistician. Gloucestershire Retinal Research Groupfn

This is all deaths, not just deaths from Covid-19.

Plotting the weekly numbers of deaths using this radial form demonstrates the variability during the months of the year. For example, deaths from Aussie flu in the first weeks of 2018 can be observed. The increase in the number of deaths from the first week in April 2020 to the last week of May can clearly be seen.

Source: Public Health England & ONS Data
Source: Public Health England & ONS Data

COVID-19 Situation Reportfn by Joel Smalley MBA and Marie Oldfield & CStat, CSci.

Note the Gompertz shape curve for Sweden's Coronavirus daily deaths per day in the above reply. It matches the pattern identified by Hope Simpson's 50 year study into viral infections yet again.

Don't Mention Sweden

All-Cause Mortality from 2016 to 2020 in UK

The last week of 2020's All-Cause Mortality Surveillance reportfn below.

All Cause Mortality Report. Source: Public Health England
All Cause Mortality Report. Source: Public Health England

Yet the UK government, taking advice from SAGE University Academics (which does not include any Immunologists) ordered a third national lockdown over the Christmas period.

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